Mapping the End-of-Life Electric Motorcycle Battery System in Indonesia: A Multi-Actor Causal Loop Diagram of OEM, Informal, User, and Government Interactions
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.12928/si.v24i2.741Keywords:
Electric motorcycle, Battery waste management, Causal loop diagram, End-of-life battery, Circular supply chainAbstract
Indonesia’s rapid electric-motorcycle adoption requires circular end-of-life (EoL) battery management to retain material value and reduce environmental risk. In Yogyakarta, unclear return and processing arrangements risk diverting used batteries into informal channels that are economically attractive but often unsafe and poorly traceable. This study develops a stakeholder-informed Causal Loop Diagram (CLD) to map circular pathways for EoL batteries across OEMs, informal workshops, users, and government, and to support a circular battery supply-chain framework. The model integrates market growth, information, service access, incentives, OEM take-back responsibility, informal repair and reuse, and regulation within a single systems perspective. Variables were identified through literature and policy review, refined with AI-assisted reference exploration, and validated through a survey of 98 users, interviews with 8 dealer/OEM representatives and 4 informal actors, and a focus group discussion (FGD) that assessed variable relevance, causal relationships, polarity, and overall CLD structure. The final model comprises 67 variables, 14 reinforcing loops, and 5 balancing loops. It shows that reduced-performance batteries may enter repair, refurbishment, reuse, storage, transfer, or final treatment pathways. Reinforcing dynamics arise from market expansion, informal economic benefits, and convenience, whereas formal incentives, regulation, and risk mitigation generate balancing effects that can redirect flows toward higher-value circular pathways. Key leverage points include accessible formal collection, operational OEM take-back with diagnostic and downstream capacity, and trained informal workshops linked to traceable handover. As a structural model, the CLD does not quantify parameters or simulate outcomes, but provides a basis for future system-dynamics modelling of material recovery, environmental risk, and circular value creation in electric-motorcycle battery supply chains.
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